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Bitcoin Price Prediction 2030 & 2040 (May 2024 Update)

Max Keiser predicts Bitcoin to be worth $200K in 2024. Fidelity predicts one Bitcoin will be worth $1B in 2038. Hal Finney predicted $22M per Bitcoin by 2045. Let’s look into why in more detail…

Drew
Drew
May 9, 2024May 9, 202422 min read22 minutes read

Disclaimer: The Bitcoin price predictions below do not necessarily reflect the views of Swan Bitcoin.

Now that the Bitcoin halving is in the rearview mirror, this analysis delves into the complexities of past performance and emerging trends to provide readers with a comprehensive understanding of how various industry leaders formulate their price predictions.

We will explore various influences that may determine Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2025, 2030, and 2040. By scrutinizing historical data and evaluating potential scenarios, we aim to offer a well-rounded perspective on what the future holds for Bitcoin’s valuation in a post-halving world.


The Nakamoto Portfolio Monte Carlo Strategy Price Prediction

The Nakamoto Portfolio Theory is a set of frameworks to help investors understand the impact an emerging asset like Bitcoin has a portfolio allocation.

How hard it is to forecast Bitcoin’s price? Using history as a guide, we can run a simulation to forecast 1-year returns using a Monte Carlo Simulation.

Hal Finney’s Thought Experiment — $22M per BTC  

Back in 2009 when Bitcoin was first released, visionary cryptographer and Bitcoin pioneer Hal Finney boldly predicted that each Bitcoin could one day reach a staggering $10 million in value.

Hal Finney’s prediction was not based on mere speculation but rather on a thoughtful analysis of Bitcoin’s potential as a global payment system. Finney envisioned a scenario where the collective value of Bitcoin would align with the total wealth of the world, which he estimated to be within the range of $100 trillion to $300 trillion dollars at the time.

By dividing this value among the limited supply of 21 million Bitcoin, his calculation resulted in an astonishing value of $22,074,619 per Bitcoin.

At the time, Hal’s prediction may have seemed highly speculative or even absurd to a casual observer at the time. However, in April 2024 — many people today share his opinion about Bitcoin’s price potential.

Peter Brandt: $120k — $200k per BTC by September 2025

Legendary prop trader and Market Wizard Series author Peter Brandt took to Twitter to revise a previous prediction of his. We’ll cover that below!

Fidelity Predicts: $1B per 1 BTC by 2038 — 2040

Fidelity has been closely monitoring the development of Bitcoin more than most TradFi institutions. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, thinks the value of a single Bitcoin could reach $1 billion by the year 2038 — 2040.

Chamath Palihapitiya: Predicts $1M per 1 BTC by 2040 — 2042

Chamath Palihapitiya, a prominent venture capitalist and early Bitcoin investor, has made significant waves in the crypto community with his bold predictions. Palihapitiya’s views on the future of Bitcoin offer a captivating glimpse into the potential growth and adoption of this digital asset.

Max Keiser Predicts: $200K per 1 BTC By End of 2024

Max Keiser, a seasoned financial broadcaster and Bitcoin advocate has long been known for his outspoken and sometimes controversial predictions.

Keiser’s unique insights into Bitcoin’s price movements and broader global economic implications provide a thought-provoking perspective.

We’ll keep a close eye on this prediction as the year unfolds.

Bitcoin Historical Halving Events

First Halving — November 2012

  • Pre-Halving Price: ≈ $11

  • Post-Halving Price: The price increased steadily and reached about $1,100 in November 2013, a year after the halving.

Second Halving — July 2016

  • Pre-Halving Price: ≈ $650

  • Post-Halving Price: Bitcoin experienced gradual growth, reaching around $20,000 by December 2017, peaking in a dramatic bull run.

Third Halving — May 2020

  • Pre-Halving Price: ≈ $8,000

  • Post-Halving Price: Bitcoin eventually soared to a new high despite initial stagnation, reaching nearly $64,000 in April 2021.

Forth Halving — April 2024

  • Pre-Halving Price

    • ≈$61,000

  • Current Bitcoin Price

    • $69,083.20 (May 25, 9:05 PM UTC)

  • Post-Halving Price Difference

    • +13.25%

Post-Halving Bitcoin Price Prediction

What conclusions can we draw from previous post-halving Bitcoin data?

Bitcoin Price History at Halving

Trading View

While historical data suggests a possible price increase following a halving event, several factors could influence future price movements:

  • Adoption Rate: Increased adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value and medium of exchange can increase prices.

  • Regulatory Environment: Changes in regulatory frameworks in major economies can significantly impact the price.

  • Macro-Economic Conditions: The broader economic environment, including inflation rates and the performance of other asset classes, can also affect Bitcoin’s price.

  • Technological Developments: Enhancements in blockchain technology and Bitcoin’s network could impact its utility and, by extension, its price.

Analyzing the Experts Bitcoin Price Prediction

The Nakamoto Portfolio Monte Carlo Strategy Price Prediction

Using history as a guide, we can run a simulation to forecast 1-year returns using a Monte Carlo Simulation.

Quick Results

  • Average expected price in 1 year = $144k

But the average here is not a great indicator.

It is the same as saying you will stick your head in a refrigerator and your feet in the oven, and (on average) you will be fine.

  • 95% of the simulations fall between $30k and $448k

  • The worst simulation ends at $6.5k

  • The best one ends at $901k

Conclusion? Prices are close to being impossible to forecast. Anyone picking prices with certainty did not run the numbers.

The good news? 

77% of the simulations are positive

The returns compared to the vol are among some of the best you can find in any asset class.

Fidelity Predicts: $1B per 1 BTC by 2038 — 2040

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, predicts a staggering future for Bitcoin, suggesting that the value of a single Bitcoin could soar to $1 billion by 2038 to 2040.

Timmer’s demand model is rooted in Metcalfe’s Law. It claims the value of Bitcoin will grow steadily to about $1 million per full Bitcoin by 2030. A network like Bitcoin comprises a set of nodes that form connections with one another and follow a protocol, a group of rules. 

Demand Side Bitcoin Pricing Model

World Bank and Coin Metrics

Understanding Bitcoin’s Value Through Metcalfe’s Law

Metcalfe’s Law proposes that a network’s value is proportional to the square of its number of users.

Applying this to Bitcoin, Timmer predicts that the cryptocurrency’s value could reach approximately $1 million per Bitcoin by 2030 as the network expands and reaches a critical mass, sparking what he refers to as a supermajority feedback network effect.

Jurrien further broke down his reasoning on Twitter.

Modeling Bitcoin with Metcalfe’s Law

Fidelity has observed a significant surge in interest in Bitcoin among its largest institutional clients, with 90% expressing a keen interest in cryptocurrency investments. In response, Fidelity established Fidelity Digital Assets, a division focused on developing sophisticated Bitcoin custody solutions.

In June of 2022, Fidelity Digital Assets division released a price modeling document titled: Valuing Bitcoin — Modeling the Price of Bitcoin as a Monetary Asset Through Market Forces.

Bitcoin Halving Coin Metrics

Coin Metrics

The following month, in July, Fidelity invested $20 million to acquire a 7.4% stake in Marathon Digital Holdings, a major crypto-mining company based in North America.

Fidelity’s Strategic Investments in Cryptocurrency

Further solidifying its commitment to the Bitcoin sector, in July 2022, Fidelity invested $20 million to acquire a 7.4% stake in Marathon Digital Holdings, a prominent crypto-mining company based in North America. This move is part of a broader strategy to integrate deeper into the Bitcoin ecosystem.

SEC Approves Spot Bitcoin ETF

The SEC approved a Spot Bitcoin ETF on January 10th, 2024 including Fidelity’s own Bitcoin ETF, Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust

According to the most recent data compiled by Hey Apollo, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) are at the forefront.

Current Spot Bitcoin ETF Fees and Holdings (As of May 23rd, 2024)

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)
BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)
  • Fee: 0.25% for the first 6 months or $5 billion

  • BTC Holdings: 281,899 BTC with Coinbase

  • More Information

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC)
  • Fee: 0.25% (0% fees until July 31, 2024)

  • BTC Holdings: 159,548 BTC in self-custody

  • More Information

Fee information is updated daily. For the latest updates, click here.

Bitcoin has the largest cryptocurrency user base and network. As institutions like Fidelity help onboard its clients into the Bitcoin network, its value increases exponentially, attracting more users and reinforcing its position as the top digital asset.

On November 1st, Timmer revisited his 2020 thesis in a Twitter thread.

Jurrien Timmer Tweet Data

In January 2022, Fidelity outlined Bitcoin’s unique characteristics, why they make Bitcoin fundamentally different from other digital assets, and why this is important for investors to consider.

In October 2023, they released a report titled: Bitcoin First Revisited: about why investors need to consider Bitcoin separately from other digital assets. In it, they double down on why Bitcoin is unique from all other digital assets and belongs in its own category.

Peter Brandt: $120k — $200k per 1 BTC by September 2025

Peter Brandt, a renowned trader with decades of experience, recently shared an insightful update on Bitcoin’s future through a Twitter post. In his latest analysis, Brandt highlighted a significant breakthrough where Bitcoin has exceeded the upper boundary of its 15-month trading channel, marking a critical development in its market behavior.

Revised Bitcoin Price Prediction

Initially, Brandt’s forecast for Bitcoin at the peak of this cycle was set at $120,000. However, with the recent developments and Bitcoin’s strong performance, he has revised his prediction upward to an ambitious $200,000.

His adjustment reflects his confidence in Bitcoin’s continued growth and its potential to reach new heights, instilling a sense of optimism in the market.

Chamath Palihapitiya Predicts $1M per 1 BTC by 2040 — 42

Chamath Palihapitiya, a prominent venture capitalist and technology investor, sees Bitcoin not just as a cryptocurrency but as a potential global reserve currency with distinct characteristics that differentiate it from traditional financial systems.

His perspective is built on Bitcoin’s unique attributes, which include its decentralization, borderless nature, scarcity, and robust security features.

In January 2021, Chamath told CNBC: 

“The reason is because, every time you see all of this stuff happening, it just reminds you that wow, our leaders are not as trustworthy and reliable as they used to be… [s]o just in case, we really do need to have some kind of, you know, insurance we can keep under our pillow that gives us some access to an uncorrelated hedge.”

CNBC: Bitcoin going to $100K, then $150K, then $200K says Palihapitiya

Bitcoin’s Role as a Store of Value

Palihapitiya asserts that Bitcoin’s structure positions it as an excellent store of value, a crucial aspect in times of geopolitical uncertainties and growing skepticism towards traditional fiat currencies. 

He argues that critics like Warren Buffet don’t fully grasp Bitcoin’s potential as a trusted alternative and a reserve currency for nations and corporate balance sheets worldwide.

Scarcity Driving Value

A central tenet of Palihapitiya’s thesis is Bitcoin’s limited supply cap of 21 million coins, which ensures its deflationary nature. This scarcity is expected to intensify over time as the maximum supply limit approaches, a factor that could inevitably drive Bitcoin’s price upwards as demand continues to rise.

Palihapitiya believes this scarcity, combined with increasing global adoption, will drive demand and result in significant price appreciation over the long term.

Bitcoin Monetary Inflation

In December 2020, JPMorgan made a significant forecast, suggesting that Bitcoin would likely impact gold’s market position for years to come.

The post-halving inflation rate on the Bitcoin network is currently 0.84%.

In 2021, just before Bitcoin’s all-time-high peak, Chamath said Bitcoin had “effectively replaced gold.” In June 2022, authorities in Uganda revealed a significant find of around 31 million metric tonnes of gold ore within the nation.

This discovery could yield 320,158 metric tonnes of purified gold, with an approximate valuation of $12 trillion - represents more than the entire amount of gold above ground and accounted for in total supply.

As this gold is recovered, it will begin to dilute the scarcity properties of the metal significantly. Bitcoin was engineered to be deflationary over time. The next block-halving event (which should occur in April 2024) changes Bitcoin’s inflation rate to only 0.84%. This monetary policy makes for an ideal store of value over long periods. 

Bitcoin Inflation Data

Palihapitiya emphasizes the growing interest and adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors. The involvement of major financial institutions, such as Tesla, MicroStrategy, and PayPal, has contributed to Bitcoin’s legitimacy as an investment asset. 

Institutional Adoption Boosting Bitcoin’s Legitimacy

As more businesses, institutions, and family office-type investors recognize Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against the legacy banking system and a diversification tool, Palihapitiya expects increased capital inflows and further price appreciation.

Bitcoin’s Technological Advancements

He also maintains the Bitcoin network’s continuous development, scalability improvements, and enhanced privacy features will contribute to its widespread adoption and further bolster its value proposition.

Palihapitiya’s Bitcoin price prediction spans 20 years, emphasizing the long-term nature of his outlook.

He doesn’t believe the U.S. dollar will lose its reserve currency status anytime soon and acknowledges Bitcoin’s path to becoming a global reserve currency will likely face numerous challenges and regulatory hurdles. 

Max Keiser Predicts $200K per 1 BTC in 2024

Keiser believes that the global economic landscape, marked by excessive debt levels, currency devaluation, and geopolitical uncertainties, creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin.

As of May 10th, 2024 — U.S. National Debt: $34.725T

U.S. National Debt Clock

He argues that traditional fiat currencies are prone to inflationary pressures and can be subject to political manipulation and is very outspoken in his belief we are at the 300-year end-game for the central banking Ponzi scheme.

Favoring Bitcoin

In contrast, Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and limited supply make it an attractive alternative for individuals seeking a store of value and protection against economic volatility. Keiser often criticizes central bank policies, such as quantitative easing and low interest rates, which he views as detrimental to the stability of fiat currencies. 

According to Keiser, these policies erode the value of traditional currencies and push investors towards alternative assets like Bitcoin and sees Bitcoin as a hedge against the risks associated with central bank interventions.

Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Economic Instability

Keiser contends Bitcoin is the ultimate insurance policy and hedge against the traditional central banking system.

The Deflationary Advantage of Bitcoin

He highlights Bitcoin’s limited supply and scarcity as a fundamental driver of its price appreciation and argues that as more investors recognize the importance of a deflationary asset in an inflationary world, demand for Bitcoin will rise, pushing its price higher.

Network Effects and Bitcoin’s Adoption

Keiser often mentions network effects.

Bitcoin’s value will increase as more individuals, institutions, and merchants adopt Bitcoin. As its user base grows — Bitcoin will become more widely accepted as a medium of exchange and store of value. 

Max is a Senior Bitcoin Advisor to President Bukele of El Salvador to further the country’s goals and commitment to the Bitcoin Standard. Despite Bitcoin’s reputation for volatility, Keiser sees it as an opportunity rather than a drawback.

Volatility as an Opportunity

He argues that Bitcoin’s price volatility gives traders and investors significant profit potential. Keiser often encourages individuals to embrace volatility and use it as an advantage when entering the Bitcoin market.

Long-Term Price Potential of Bitcoin

Kesier is also on record stating he believes Bitcoin will eventually reach $1M per BTC, closer to our Bitcoin price prediction 2040 target date.

Today, Bitcoin makes up only ≈ 0.05% of the pool of investable assets.

Thought Experiment: If Bitcoin captured (X%) of each asset class below, what price prediction conclusions can we draw from this? 

A Look At Total Global Asset Classes

Bitcoin Price Prediction Math: $200 trillion / 21 million BTC = $9,523,809.52 per BTC

What Will Determine Bitcoin’s 2025, 2030 & 2040 Price?

Before we can provide any Bitcoin price prediction, we first must consider the various factors influencing price movements…

Supply and Demand Dynamics

As demand for Bitcoin increases, especially in the face of limited supply, the price likely increases. Conversely, when demand falls or stagnates, Bitcoin faces downward pressure, and the prices may drop.

Due to Bitcoin’s automatic 'Difficulty Adjustment' mining algorithm component, it’s supply curve is deterministic. This adjusts the difficulty of the mining process such that no matter how little or how much mining hash power is applied, the average block interval remains anchored for around 600 seconds or 10 minutes.

Factors That Will Shape Bitcoin’s Price in 2025, 2030, and 2040

When forecasting Bitcoin’s future price for 2025, 2030, and beyond to 2040, it’s crucial to understand the diverse factors that could drive its market value. Here’s a deep dive into the key elements that could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

Bitcoin halving events, which occur roughly every four years, reduce block rewards for miners by half. This automatically programmed periodic decline in newly minted Bitcoin further restricts supply. It usually sparks a period of very bullish price action.

In the year leading up to Bitcoin halving events, many investors come out with their own Bitcoin price predictions. So, what other factors should we consider?

Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior

As with any asset, market sentiment significantly impacts Bitcoin’s price.

Positive news, recommendations from influential figures, or institutional investments can trigger FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) among investors and lead to price increases.

Conversely, negative news, regulatory uncertainties, or security breaches can lead to panic selling and sudden major price declines.

Technological Advancements and Adoption

Bitcoin’s value is linked to its adoption and utility. Technological developments that improve the network’s scalability, security, and efficiency can enhance confidence in Bitcoin and potentially drive its price upwards.

Moreover, increased merchant acceptance and widespread use cases contribute to the perception of Bitcoin as a viable payment method, further impacting its price.

Regulatory Developments

The regulatory landscape significantly impacts the cryptocurrency market. Favorable regulations that provide clarity and legitimacy can attract institutional investors and contribute to price growth.

Conversely, adverse regulations or prohibitive measures may dampen market sentiment and negatively affect Bitcoin’s price. They can dramatically change Bitcoin price predictions as new developments come to pass.

Bitcoin’s Pricing History

Since its inception, Bitcoin’s price has seen extreme fluctuations. In its early days, the cryptocurrency traded for fractions of a cent, but in late 2013, it skyrocketed to about $754.01, up a whopping 5,481.1% for the year.

This meteoric rise was followed by a sharp decline know as the "Bitcoin bubble,” which saw the price plummet to around $200 in 2015. The most notable surge in Bitcoin price occurred in late 2017 when it hit an all-time high of nearly $20,000.

However, the ensuing market correction caused the price to drop back to the $3,000 to $4,000 range in subsequent years.

Recently, Bitcoin price has seen robust growth and consolidation periods, underscoring its ongoing volatility. Bitcoin’s historical price charts show recurring patterns and cycles, such as halving-induced supply shocks and boom-and-bust cycles after periods of rapid growth.

Example: Historically, halving events have been followed by significant price increases due to reduced supply and increased demand.

Remember: Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Additional factors include:

  • Macroeconomic conditions

  • Technological advances

  • Regulatory developments

Previous attempts to predict Bitcoin’s price have yielded mixed results. While some analysts accurately predicted large price movements, others missed critical turning points in the market. These differences highlight the inherent challenges of predicting an asset as complex and volatile as Bitcoin.

Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, suggests the recent spot Bitcoin ETF approval could boost Bitcoin’s price to $100,000 in the very near future.

Adam Beck’s Spot Bitcoin ETF Twitter Bet

NOTE: Spot Bitcoin ETFs smashed records on their first day trading seeing over 4.6 Billion in trading volume, the highest ever for an ETF launch.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity Investments each saw more than $2 billion of net inflows during their first 12 trading days, while Grayscale Bitcoin Trust suffered more than $5 billion of net outflows.

Adam Back might be on to something here!

Echoing this optimism, Jan3 CEO Samson Mow suggested in a recent interview with Cointelegraph that the new spot Bitcoin ETF vehicle in the U.S. could potentially escalate Bitcoin’s value to as high as $1 million shortly after its introduction, within days to weeks.

BlackRock

What Will Happen to Bitcoin Now That ETFs Have Been Approved?

It means Bitcoin is leveling up. As Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten told Yahoo Finance:

“The top-of-funnel for investor class is going to change from something that is contrary to Bitcoin, which is all of the crypto scams and pump-and-dumps of the last six years, FTX and the like… Now you’re going to see a new era where some of the most credible, some of the most well-funded, trust brands in the world are going to be shouting from the rooftops with tens, maybe hundreds of millions of dollars of marketing expense, just talking about Bitcoin.”

Q1 Spot Bitcoin ETF Key Takeaways

  • The initial three months of trading for spot Bitcoin ETFs have ended, with the eleven offerings approved by the SEC collectively attracting about $12.1 billion in inflows.

  • Blackrock’s IBIT has emerged as the leading beneficiary, securing $13.9 billion in flows since it started trading in January.

  • IBIT is the fastest growing ETF in the history of ETFs.

  • On March 27th, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink appeared on Fox Business to discuss the wild success of its spot Bitcoin ETF product, IBIT. Fink’s spot Bitcoin ETF comments begin at the 10 minute, 15 second mark.

  • GBTC was a significant exception in flow data, experiencing $14.7 billion in outflows, attributed to the comparatively high fees linked to its offering.

  • The inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs also significantly benefited the price of underlying Bitcoin in the first quarter of the year, with a roughly 67% rise on a year-to-date (YTD) basis.

  • Grayscale recently submitted a proposal for a new spot Bitcoin ETF to be listed under the BTC ticker, which is anticipated to have lower fees. Should the ongoing trends persist, IBIT is poised to surpass GBTC as the leading spot Bitcoin ETF in the upcoming months.

  • It’s also worth mentioning that Hashdex’s DEFI ETF initially launched as a Bitcoin futures ETF, transitioned to a spot Bitcoin ETF on March 27th.

Achieving a Bitcoin price of $1 million represents a staggering 2,500% rise from its current position around $40,000.

Investors must understand that all Bitcoin price predictions are speculative and subject to numerous variables. Getting a balanced and comprehensive outlook based on available data and expert insight is essential while emphasizing the importance of prudent and well-informed investment decisions.

Closing Thoughts

Rising Institutional Adoption Bolsters Bitcoin’s Market Presence

The adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs by institutional investors, such as BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Fidelity’s clients and holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset like MicroStrategy continues to bolster its legitimacy — this attracts additional capital inflows.

Bitcoin’s Appeal Amid Economic Uncertainty

With its decentralized nature, capped supply, and reputation as a robust store of value, Bitcoin offers a compelling alternative to traditional fiat currencies in today’s inflation-ridden and economically unstable environment.

This positions Bitcoin as an attractive investment for those seeking stability and long-term value.

While volatility is often a concern, experts like Max Keiser see Bitcoin as an asset unlike any other and views price fluctuations as significant profit opportunities for those willing to embrace the volatility and enter the market strategically.

Although, precise price predictions will remain elusive, the overall consensus points toward a positive trajectory for Bitcoin, despite what many skeptics think.

Despite the vastly different timeframes of these predictions, the overall consensus points toward a positive trajectory for Bitcoin. The once audacious projections of early visionaries like Hal Finney are beginning to warrant serious consideration.

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Swan is a leading Bitcoin financial services company with more than 120,000 clients and 170 employees, operating globally. Established in 2019, Swan helps individuals and institutions to understand and invest in Bitcoin. The Swan app simplifies Bitcoin purchases with instant and recurring buys. Swan IRA provides a tax-advantaged solution for saving Bitcoin in retirement accounts.

For HNWIs and businesses, Swan Private provides white-glove service for large purchases, treasury solutions, and employee Bitcoin benefits. With Swan Vault, clients can easily custody their own Bitcoin with peace of mind. Financial advisors trust Swan Advisor for client Bitcoin allocations, backed by world-class custody and educational content.

Swan Managed Mining provides clients with fully segregated and dedicated mining operations, catering to their unique requirements, opportunities, and strategic advantages. Swan prides itself on exceptional client service, making Bitcoin accessible to all. For more information, please visit swan.com.

Drew

Drew

Drew, a class of 2013 Bitcoiner, is a Research Analyst for Swan Bitcoin.

He has worked in institutional VC/PE, FinTech, and DLT consulting for over six years. He also brings over twelve years of experience working with national nonprofits and start-ups in education and software development in several leadership roles.

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