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Is Bitcoin’s Price Too High to Invest?

Posted 6/29/21 by Sam Callahan

Today, less than 2% of the world owns Bitcoin & Bitcoin’s price is $33,000. 

Not convinced you’re early to Bitcoin? Keep reading 👇

Whenever someone discovers Bitcoin there are two phases that typically occur, the first is that they wish they could buy it cheaper, and the second is that in hindsight, they should have bought more. 

Everyone feels like they’re late to the game when they find out about Bitcoin. They feel like Bitcoin is too expen­sive and that they missed the boat, but this is flawed thinking. 

Take it from Greg in 2011:

Nowadays we laugh at the idea that somebody could think $8/bitcoin is expen­sive. However, back then it probably really did feel that way. Similarly, although 1 bitcoin costing $32,500 might sound high today, that same price may look dizzy­ingly cheap years from now as Bitcoin adoption continues to grow across the globe.

It’s key to remember that over long periods of time, bitcoin has returned extra­or­di­nary gains for investors. That’s why it is more impor­tant to buy it and hold it for a long period of time, rather than try to time the market to get in at a lower price.

Zoom-Out

What I am refer­ring to above is the concept of length­ening your time horizon. When investing in Bitcoin, you should view it as a long-term invest­ment rather than a short-term trade to get rich quickly. If you start thinking in years instead of weeks or months, it will change the way you view the price of Bitcoin.

Ask yourself this — if you plan to hold bitcoin for 5 years, 10 years, or 20 years, are you really going to care if you bought bitcoin at $30,000, $40,000, or $50,000? The answer is probably not. You expect it to be much, much higher by then.

When looking at the price of Bitcoin, it helps to “zoom-out” to get a general idea of how Bitcoin has continued to grow as an asset over time. One can easily observe this trend by looking at the all-time chart of Bitcoin.

The main takeaway is that it’s not about what price an investor buys, but rather how soon they make the decision to buy Bitcoin at all. As they held it, they were able to benefit from the price appre­ci­ating as Bitcoin’s adoption continued to grow over the years. When it comes to Bitcoin it is time in the market that matters, not timing the market.

Adoption

By buying Bitcoin today, what you are really betting on is that the usage of Bitcoin will continue to spread. It’s reason­able for investors to conclude that the price of bitcoin will be magni­tudes higher years down the road if the positive trend of Bitcoin adoption continues. As more and more people find value in Bitcoin, the demand for the asset increases, and this results in the price rising due to Bitcoin’s fixed supply. Since we already know Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, let’s see what Bitcoin’s demand has looked like over the last 12 months.

In the past year alone, we’ve witnessed public compa­nies, hedge funds, insur­ance compa­nies, and now countries all adopt Bitcoin. On top of that, payment providers like Paypal, Visa, and Square began offering access to Bitcoin for their millions of clients and merchants. Lastly, billion­aire investors like Bill Miller, Stanley Drunk­en­miller, Paul Tudor Jones, and Ray Dalio have all endorsed Bitcoin. The demand for Bitcoin appears to be healthy and growing, and thus we can expect the price to continue to increase with its adoption as the years tick on. 

You’re Not Late, You’re Early

The truth is that despite Bitcoin being >$30,000, we are still extremely early in its adoption. Bitcoin is an ambitious technology that aims to one day allow for the free flow of trillions of dollars worth of value on its network. It’s attempting to become a widely accepted store of value which is why it is often compared to gold. 

The reason gold is compared frequently to Bitcoin is they share a lot of the same proper­ties. Like gold, Bitcoin is scarce, divis­ible, durable, and portable. Yet Bitcoin actually improves on gold’s proper­ties by being a natively digital technology. Bitcoin is a scarcer gold that you can divide up into millions of pieces and send through the internet with a tap of a finger. Thus investors can reason­ably expect that in the future Bitcoin may reach and perhaps even exceed the market cap of gold.

In the graphic above, you can see that if Bitcoin were to reach gold’s market cap, then 1 bitcoin would equal nearly $487,000 or ~15x higher than today! At its current price, Bitcoin’s market cap is not even larger than Facebook’s, a single public company. That’s how early you are.

As you can see, even though the price of Bitcoin today might appear expen­sive, the poten­tial invest­ment oppor­tu­nity here is MASSIVE. Investors need to look at bitcoin through a long-term lens in order to benefit from its growing adoption. We are still in Bitcoin’s early days, and if it continues on its path to becoming a widely accepted store of value, then in the future $34,000/bitcoin will seem just as ridicu­lously cheap as $8/bitcoin does today. 

This blog offers thoughts and opinions on Bitcoin from the Swan Bitcoin team and friends. Swan Bitcoin is the easiest way to buy Bitcoin using your bank account automatically every week or month, starting with as little as $10. Sign up or learn more here.

Sam Callahan

Sam Callahan

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26565 Agoura Rd Ste 200
Calabasas, CA USA
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© 2021 Swan Bitcoin

Electric Solidus LLC
26565 Agoura Rd Ste 200
Calabasas, CA USA
hello@swanbitcoin.com
+1.218.379.7926
Swan Bitcoin does not provide any investment, financial, tax, legal or other professional advice. We recommend that you consult with financial and tax advisors to understand the risks and consequences of buying, selling and holding Bitcoin.