--- title: "Bitcoin Correlation With Stocks: S&P 500 & Nasdaq Data" description: "Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.42 in 2025 and 0.46 over the last 90 days (Nov 2026). Yearly data since 2017, Nasdaq, dollar and crash days." url: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/analysis/bitcoin-correlation-with-stocks/ --- # Bitcoin Correlation With Stocks: S&P 500 & Nasdaq Data Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.42 in 2025 and 0.46 over the last 90 days (Nov 2026). Yearly data since 2017, Nasdaq, dollar and crash days. --- **Swan Bitcoin** · November 12, 2026 Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.42 in 2025 and 0.46 over the last 90 trading days, as of November 11, 2026. That is a moderate positive link: Bitcoin tends to move in the same direction as stocks more often than not, but far less tightly than tech stocks do. The Nasdaq-100's correlation with the S&P 500 over the same 90 days was 0.93. Swan calculated every figure on this page from daily closing prices: Bitcoin from Coin Metrics, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). The method is at the bottom of the page, and the numbers will be updated every quarter. ## Bitcoin's correlation with stocks right now As of November 11, 2026, Bitcoin's daily returns had these correlations: - **With the S&P 500, last 90 trading days:** 0.46 - **With the Nasdaq-100, last 90 trading days:** 0.48 - **With the S&P 500, last 12 months:** 0.46 - **With the Nasdaq-100, last 12 months:** 0.44 - **With the S&P 500, 2026 so far:** 0.47 - **With the US dollar index, last 90 trading days:** -0.32 A correlation of 1.0 means two assets move in lockstep, 0 means their daily moves are unrelated, and -1.0 means they move in opposite directions. Squaring the correlation gives the share of Bitcoin's daily variation that moves with the S&P 500: about 21% at 0.46. Most of Bitcoin's day-to-day movement is unrelated to stocks. ![Line chart of Bitcoin 90-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, 2014 to November 2026: near zero before 2020, peak about 0.63 in October 2022, 0.46 to 0.48 as of November 11, 2026](https://www.datocms-assets.com/56652/1794506998-bitcoin-correlation-with-stocks-90-day-rolling-2026-11.png?auto=format) Swan calculations from Coin Metrics and FRED data, as of November 11, 2026. ## Is Bitcoin correlated with the stock market? Yes, moderately, and more than it used to be. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 was close to zero from 2017 through 2019 and has been clearly positive since 2020: - **2017:** 0.06 - **2018:** 0.08 - **2019:** -0.12 - **2020:** 0.44 - **2021:** 0.25 - **2022:** 0.57 - **2023:** 0.16 - **2024:** 0.35 - **2025:** 0.42 - **2026 (to November 11):** 0.47 Over longer periods the link is weaker than in any single recent year: - **2017 to 2025, Bitcoin and the S&P 500:** 0.26 - **2020 to 2025, Bitcoin and the S&P 500:** 0.38 - **2014 to 2025, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100:** 0.22 - **2020 to 2025, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100:** 0.39 ![Bar chart of Bitcoin correlation with the S&P 500 by year: 0.06 in 2017, 0.08 in 2018, -0.12 in 2019, 0.44 in 2020, 0.25 in 2021, 0.57 in 2022, 0.16 in 2023, 0.35 in 2024, 0.42 in 2025, 0.47 in 2026 to date](https://www.datocms-assets.com/56652/1794506998-bitcoin-correlation-with-stocks-by-year-2026-11.png?auto=format) Swan calculations from Coin Metrics and FRED data, as of November 11, 2026. ## When was the correlation highest? The highest 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 in our data was 0.63, on October 10, 2022. With the Nasdaq-100, the peak was 0.66, on May 12, 2022. The lowest was -0.35 with the S&P 500, on August 9, 2019. Since the start of 2020, the 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 has been above 0.5 about 29% of the time and below zero about 1% of the time. ## Why did Bitcoin's correlation with stocks rise after 2020? The data shows when the correlation rose, not why. The 90-day correlation jumped from around zero to about 0.55 in March 2020, during the COVID market crash, and stayed positive afterward. It climbed again through 2022, a year in which the S&P 500 fell 19.4% and Bitcoin fell 64.4%, and peaked in October 2022. It has also been higher in each full year since spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in [January 2024](https://www.swanbitcoin.com/markets/the-race-is-on-eleven-bitcoin-etfs-launch/): 0.35 in 2024, 0.42 in 2025 and 0.47 so far in 2026, against 0.16 in 2023. That is a timing match, not proof that ETFs caused it, since 2023 itself was lower than 2020 to 2022. ## Is Bitcoin just a tech stock? No. Tech stocks move almost in lockstep with the market, and Bitcoin does not. From 2020 to 2025, the Nasdaq-100's daily correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.94. Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq-100 over the same period was 0.39. Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq-100 is only slightly higher than its correlation with the S&P 500 (0.39 against 0.38 for 2020 to 2025). If Bitcoin traded like a tech stock, that gap would be large. That gap is why a small Bitcoin position can change how a portfolio behaves. In Swan's [backtest of adding Bitcoin to a 60/40 portfolio](https://www.swanbitcoin.com/investing/bitcoin-60-40-portfolio/), a 2.5% allocation raised the annual return from 9.1% to 11.2% between 2014 and 2025 while volatility rose only from 10.3% to 10.6%. ## Does Bitcoin fall when the stock market crashes? Usually, yes. On the S&P 500's 20 worst days since November 2016, Bitcoin fell on 15 of them. Its average move on those 20 days was -6.83%, against -5.21% for the S&P 500. Some of the biggest of those days: - **March 12, 2020:** the S&P 500 fell 9.51% and Bitcoin fell 37.53%. - **March 16, 2020:** the S&P 500 fell 11.98% and Bitcoin fell 10.92%. - **April 4, 2025:** the S&P 500 fell 5.97% and Bitcoin rose 1.02%. - **April 3, 2025:** the S&P 500 fell 4.84% and Bitcoin rose 0.46%. - **November 5, 2026:** the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and Bitcoin fell 5.82%. So Bitcoin has not behaved like a safe haven on the market's worst days. Its value as a diversifier comes from its low correlation over longer periods and its separate long-term return, not from rising when stocks fall. ## Does Bitcoin go up when stocks go down? Not reliably. Bitcoin's correlation with stocks has been positive in every calendar year since 2020, which means it has more often moved in the same direction as stocks than the opposite direction. On individual days it often diverges: even in 2022, its most correlated year, a 0.57 correlation leaves plenty of days where the two moved apart. ## Is Bitcoin correlated with the dollar or bonds? Bitcoin has had a mild negative correlation with the US dollar and almost none with 10-year Treasury yields: - **Bitcoin and the broad US dollar index, 2020 to 2025:** -0.19 - **Bitcoin and the US dollar index, last 90 trading days:** -0.32 - **Bitcoin and daily changes in the 10-year Treasury yield, 2020 to 2025:** 0.00 A negative correlation with the dollar means Bitcoin has tended to rise on days the dollar weakens against other currencies, and vice versa. For how Bitcoin compares with gold as a store of value, see [Bitcoin vs. gold](https://www.swanbitcoin.com/analysis/bitcoin-vs-gold-store-of-value/). ## What does this mean for a portfolio? A correlation around 0.4 means Bitcoin still adds something stocks do not. An asset with a correlation well below 1.0 adds less to a portfolio's volatility than its own volatility would suggest, which is why small Bitcoin allocations have improved risk-adjusted returns in historical tests. Two cautions. Correlation measures direction, not size: Bitcoin's moves are much larger than the S&P 500's, so a modest correlation can still mean big losses on bad days. And correlations change. The 90-day figure has ranged from -0.35 to 0.63 since 2017. If you're building a position over time, [dollar-cost averaging](https://www.swanbitcoin.com/investing/dollar-cost-average/) spreads purchases across those swings. For why the volatility itself matters, see [Is Bitcoin too volatile to be money?](https://www.swanbitcoin.com/opinion/bitcoin-too-volatile-to-be-money/) ## Frequently Asked Questions ### What is Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500? Bitcoin's daily correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.46 over the 90 trading days to November 11, 2026, 0.42 for calendar 2025 and 0.38 for 2020 through 2025. That is a moderate positive correlation. ### What is the current correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq? Bitcoin's daily correlation with the Nasdaq-100 (the index the QQQ fund tracks) was 0.48 over the 90 trading days to November 11, 2026, and 0.44 over the last 12 months. ### Is Bitcoin correlated with tech stocks? Moderately. Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq-100 was 0.39 from 2020 to 2025, about the same as its correlation with the S&P 500 (0.38). Tech stocks themselves were far more tied to the market: the Nasdaq-100's correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.94. ### Why is Bitcoin correlated with the stock market? The correlation rose sharply in March 2020, during the COVID crash, and has stayed positive since. It peaked in 2022, when the S&P 500 fell 19.4% and Bitcoin fell 64.4%. Our data shows the timing of those changes; it does not by itself prove a cause. ### Does Bitcoin follow the stock market? Partly. Since 2020 Bitcoin's daily moves have been positively correlated with the S&P 500 every year, from 0.16 in 2023 to 0.57 in 2022. Most of Bitcoin's day-to-day movement is still not explained by stocks. ### Has Bitcoin's correlation with stocks gone up since the ETFs launched? It has been higher in each year since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024: 0.35 in 2024, 0.42 in 2025 and 0.47 so far in 2026, compared with 0.16 in 2023. It was also high in 2020 and 2022, before the ETFs existed. ### How do you calculate Bitcoin's correlation with stocks? Take daily percentage returns for Bitcoin and the stock index on the same trading days, then calculate the Pearson correlation of the two return series over a set window, such as a calendar year or the last 90 trading days. Our full method is below. ## How we calculated it - **Bitcoin prices:** Coin Metrics Community Data, daily reference rate in US dollars (PriceUSD), end of day. - **Stock indexes:** S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 daily closes from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). FRED's S&P 500 series starts November 14, 2016, so S&P 500 figures begin there; Nasdaq-100 figures begin January 2014. - **Dollar and bonds:** FRED broad US dollar index (DTWEXBGS) and 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10). - **Days:** US trading days with a value in both series. Weekend Bitcoin moves are folded into Monday's return. - **Returns:** daily simple returns; for the 10-year yield, the daily change in percentage points. - **Correlation:** Pearson correlation of daily returns, by calendar year, over multi-year periods and over a rolling 90-trading-day window. - **As of:** November 11, 2026. Updated quarterly. - **Cross-check:** our 2020 to 2025 figures (0.38 with the S&P 500, 0.39 with the Nasdaq-100) match those in Swan's 60/40 backtest, which used SPY and QQQ fund prices. This page is for information only and is not investment advice. Past correlations do not predict future ones. ## Sources - [Coin Metrics Community Data: Bitcoin reference rate](https://coinmetrics.io/community-network-data/) - [FRED: S&P 500 (SP500)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500) - [FRED: Nasdaq-100 (NASDAQ100)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQ100) - [FRED: Nominal Broad US Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS) - [FRED: 10-Year Treasury yield (DGS10)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10) ## Swan Bitcoin Swan delivers elite service from a dedicated team of Bitcoin professionals, providing strategic guidance and valuable insights for discerning investors. This expert guidance is reinforced by world-class research that helps investors build lasting conviction. We bring our community together through exclusive events that connect clients with industry leaders and fellow investors in sophisticated settings.