Gigi, author of 21 lessons, and Hass McCook, Auto DCA proponent, discuss price movements, Bitcoin’s user experience, and the moral failings of fiat currencies.
02:47 Reflections on Bitcoin All-Time High
06:45 ATH Predictions
11:00 Looking Back From March 13 Crash
18:30 Bicoin’s Reliability and Benefits of DCA
23:20 Hass’s Story
26:15 Gigi On Bitcoiners’ Conviction
30:00 The Moral Failings of Fiat Money
40:20 Predictions for Bitcoin Development
53:30 Comparing Bitcoin to the Internet
59:00 Bitcoin User Experience
1:09:07 Closing Thoughts
1:12:50 When the Bull Begun His Run
1:15:25 SSL Sign-Off
Hey everyone, welcome back to Swan Signal Live. If you were with us yesterday, thanks for tuning back in again. We’ve got Gigi and Hass McCook with us today.
Before we dive into that, a little bit about what’s going on at Swan, we updated you yesterday but I’m going to do it again. Of course, this show is a production of Swan Bitcoin.
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All right, let’s dive into this one. I’m going to welcome my friends Gigi and Hass McCook to the show today. How’s it going down there in Australia, Hass?
Speaking to you from the future, and the future looks bright, Wednesday morning over here in Australia. I got to witness the all-time high being broken before going to bed, so I went to sleep a very happy man.
And I woke up very happy as well, always happy, because while I was asleep I was stacking, so I’m always happy.
We can tell by that smile on your face. It’s a Bitcoin Zen smile, happy Hass. Gigi, welcome to the show man. How’s it going?
Yeah, pretty good. I have a big smile on my face as well. Unfortunately, you can’t see it yet. I’ll have to figure out how this will be possible technically. But since I am a block time maximalist, it’s always all-time high for me.
We’re always at an all-time high in terms of block time, so every day is a good day. It’s always sunny in cyberspace.
I love it, man. I love it. All-time high, Hass, you just mentioned it. So what number were you going by?
So I was going by the Bitfinex number, that’s always been what I’m looking at. But Croesus on Twitter made a great point that the last time we were at all-time high was 2017. If you want to factor in legit expansion of M2 monetary base, we’re not looking at all-time high until $27,000. So I’ll curb the enthusiasm and I’ll start getting excited at $27,000.
That is a really good point. I was making the point yesterday, I think most Bitcoiners are looking for that $20K number, since that’s the number that’s been seared into our heads for most of this bear market.
But Croesus man, that’s some good calculation there, $27K. I hadn’t seen that tweet, but I really like that analysis.
So yeah, apparently, 20% of all money ever printed was printed this year, so it looks like the stars are aligning.
All the dollars being printed, and I think we’re going to continue to see that going into 2021. All the stars are aligning for Bitcoin, making the case… The Federal Reserve and the U.S. government, Treasury, is making the case for us in very, very stark terms. Gigi man, all-time high, feelings, reactions, are you celebrating it?
Yeah. It’s weird, it’s really weird. Of course, I’m always celebrating by shitposting on Twitter, but since I’m doing that most of the time anyway, it’s, again, a normal day. But still, it’s obviously great to see the world kind of waking up, like big players moving in and corporations waking up.
But I also think that the time for celebration will be when the bull really begins his run, when all the sellers have dried up pretty much. And I think we haven’t seen that yet, so we haven’t broken through that psychological barrier yet.
And I think also if you look, for example, for the Google Search trends, nothing has penetrated the general conscious of the population yet. So the all-time high I’m looking at is, again, celebrities painting their nails with the shitcoin of their choice, something like that.
Katy Perry, I remember that in 2017. Katy Perry posted on Instagram crypto claws, and she had her nails painted with… Bitcoin was one of them, but then there was four or five other shitcoins that she was showing there. I’m sure XRP was one of them for instance. And we’re going to see the same thing again.
So what are the all-time… Well, I guess, predictions for you guys? What are you looking at price-wise? Look, I understand that we’re stacking sats, we don’t have to worry about that stuff, but we all think about it. And if you don’t, let me know, but I’m going to have a hard time believing you. What’s the number you guys have in your head for this bull run? Go ahead Hass.
So I originally was thinking, as a little heuristic, 70,000 U.S. dollars by block 700,000, so just because the sevens lined up. So block 700,000 should be around June.
So that’s where my absolute plucked number guess is coming from. But really, it could be anything. I’m always putting up numbers on Twitter of how little money is actually required to make Bitcoin really explode.
So I’m afraid to make any major predictions about what the top might possibly look like. But I think we can probably, after the crash, carry a very high floor of maybe 50 or 60,000 U.S.
I like that idea. I like predicting-
That’s initial feelings.
I like predicting the floor.
I think that’s good, that’s a good route to take. I agree, I think it’s going to be quite a bit higher in terms of multiple of the previous all-time high, than it has been in the past, just because that store of value narrative is really out there and being picked up by big players, as Gigi was saying.
And I think that they’re going to be less quick to sell, despite big drops, ready to hold for the long-term, so we’ll see. Gigi, do you have a number in mind man? What are you thinking?
Yeah. No, not at all. My number is going to be outrageous. But I think it can get really ridiculous for a short period of time. But I think Hass has precisely the right mindset, you will have to look at the constant buy pressure that will be there still after the crash.
And I think we will have another crash. I don’t believe we will have hyperbitcoinization imminent. I don’t think it will be the last cycle. I think it will play out similarly. I think we start to see that already.
Some big names that were extremely bullish on Bitcoin, they make all the newbie mistakes; they start to warm up to other coins, for example. And I think we will see that as well.
I’m not sure if everyone who moves to a Bitcoin standard for their company will have the conviction of the GigaChad and buy Bitcoin for a hundred years. I think there will be some money that just tries to diversify once Bitcoin moons and they 10X or 20X their money or something.
So I think it can get crazy, but again, it’s all about where do we stand after that? And for that, I think we need all the DCA constant buy pressure, people truly believing in the long-term vision of Bitcoin as a reserve monetary asset.
And yeah, that’s also why I think, just in general, timing anything, like trying to sell the top, will be a fool’s errand, I think this cycle as well. And I think the best thing you can do, psychologically, is just not look at the price.
My Bitcoin price indicator is just memes on Twitter, that’s basically it. And just stack what you can. It’s a game of accumulation, and the sooner you understand that, the better off you will be.
Yeah, absolutely. Guys, the last time that we were together on Swan Signal was episode one. We also were joined I think by John Vallis and Guy Swann, Cory and Yan were on as well. And it was March 13th, the day after that March 12th crash.
So we are here talking at all-time high, just what, nine months later. And we were all together talking at the yearly low as well. And that’s quite the journey over the past nine months, Bitcoin really takes you for a ride.
Hass, just talk to us about that day and your reaction that day. I remember being a little bit surprised that you were kind of shaken by that drop.
Yeah, I was. Look, I was quite pessimistic, simply because it’s a PTSD thing. So for example, so I bought my first Bitcoin seven years and a couple of weeks ago, and I remember I bought Tesla on the same day. And Tesla has outperformed Bitcoin over seven years.
So I’ve been beaten up relentlessly in my Bitcoin career, so that day I was quite pessimistic. And based on what my outlook for the rest of the year was with things like lockdowns and shutdowns and whatnot, I thought the uncertainty levels were so high that Bitcoin might need to take break for a little while.
But I was very, very impressed by the resiliency of the stackers, because only the stackers could have turned around such a hit. So March 13th, for me, was basically a… It was close to being a narrative-destroying event.
So at that point, since my buy date of November 2013 up until March 13th, 2020, Bitcoin had not out performed basically any share, so it was a really psychologically bad day. So I’m glad that Bitcoin is back where it is at its rightful position.
Unfortunately, it still hasn’t outperformed Tesla, surprisingly. Tesla looks like it’s the shitcoin of all shitcoins. Is it almost a trillion dollar company now?
I have no idea.
It went up another 50% two days ago.
Yeah. It’s on a tear. It’s a perfect example of stonks being used as stores of value these days, speculative stores of value. Like you said, they’re basically shitcoins in that regard.
They’re just not being valued as they once were, based on the fundamental aspects of the business itself, especially the giant tech companies. And I think you just got to look at Tesla as a tech company at this point with a very charismatic leader, which to me is a big part of the market cap of that Tesla has right now.
And that’s all result of fiat money printing that goes… The Cantillon Effect, the Cantillionaires, they get that money and they put it into stocks, or corporations look at that money and buy back their own shares. So yeah, I think it’s a great point.
So if Tesla can pump this hard, Bitcoin can pump 10 times harder. Tesla’s at a valuation now of probably close to a trillion, I haven’t checked, maybe $600 billion. It used to be a $60 billion company only a few months ago.
So to that end, Bitcoin can become a multi-trillion dollar asset class within the next year, and it wouldn’t look weird.
Yeah. No, I completely agree. That would be a significant chunk of gold’s market cap. Even if gold rose along with Bitcoin, and we’ve seen it, and we talked about this yesterday with Andy and Lyn, but it’s broken its correlation with gold, which started trending down at the same point Bitcoin really took off in early October.
So yeah, either Bitcoin eats into gold’s market share because that narrative is so well-established now. And the idea that Bitcoin is better, is superior than gold. It’s an improvement in, as Michael Saylor says, like 1,000X, maybe 1,000X improvement on gold.
Maybe more, right? I know that you’ve done a lot of research into gold, gold mining, etc. So yeah, we should dive into that. Gigi, any thoughts on these comments?
Yeah. I think Hass was the one who convinced me that gold is a shitcoin. If it truly plays out, we saw silver demonetized quite quickly, and I think with gold it could go even quicker.
It has a 5000 year history, no doubt about that, and it’s improving all the time. But still, I think the young generation, I don’t think they are interested in gold. I don’t think they see the appeal in it.
Maybe the rise of Bitcoin will produce the cheapest gold cuff links we ever had, because if the monetary premium is removed then you can finally gloat and buy all the cuff links you want.
I really would be surprised if that plays out. It might take longer than some people expect, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it plays out in 30 years or so. But still, I think Bitcoin is so insanely good money that the more people realize that, I think they will sell their stocks, they will sell their real estate, they will just choose Bitcoin as their main store of value.
And we see that already in Bitcoiners. I mean, there are people that sold their house and went all-in into Bitcoin just based on that conviction alone. And yeah, they did very well. It of course depends on your timing but pretty much no matter when you did that, you’re up now.
And I think we will see that over and over and over again. Like the Giga Chad himself said, it just takes a couple of millionaires and billionaires that are not afraid to do something like that, that are not ashamed, and they can go ahead and sell their assets and pour so much money into Bitcoin they will put us plebs to shame.
But still, everything is good for Bitcoin. I wouldn’t complain. I’m not complaining either way. If I have more time to stack, so be it. If Bitcoin moves tomorrow, so be it.
So be it. We still had the chance to front-run these big institutions and billionaires, 10 years really to do it. Don’t let anyone tell you that HODLing is easy and that you don’t deserve those gains.
I know Hass is here to tell us that, man. Let’s talk about your journey for a second. You alluded to it a little bit earlier that it’s beaten you up kind of mercilessly over the years.
Look, I don’t see that ever happening to anyone else ever again. I was a unique case. Well, not a unique case, I wasn’t a unique case at all. Nobody had the option of a ‘set and forget’ and daily accumulate.
Every morning we had to wake up and fight ourselves, and fight psychology, “Do I buy today? Do I buy tomorrow?” I buy today then it crashes by 20% the next day, then you wait. Then it pumps 20% and you FOMO buy, and then it crashes 60%. So this problem doesn’t exist anymore.
Now we have DCA. So as long as you’re committed to Bitcoin, you set yourself a budget, you set it, you forget it, and then you get on with life and you get on Twitter and just shitpost and not watch the price. And that’s the best thing you can do to your mental health and psychology.
And every couple of weeks you check in on your account and there are more sats in there and you’re like, “You beauty, more sats.” You catch the highs, you catch the lows. And the data will show over the past three years, two years, one year, DCA has really, really, really done well for the savers and the tithers.
Now that the bull is starting to run, possibly, lump sums might be good ideas, but I’m not and will never be a fan of the lump sum. So we hit all-time high yesterday, and within five minutes we dropped 12%.
Yeah. Yep, yep.
A lot of people would have FOMO bought that all-time high thinking, “You beauty. This is it, this is going to $25,000.” And now they’ve just taken a 10% bath.
Yeah. That’s the risk, right? I mean, the whole idea behind DCA is that you just average out their cost basis. So in 2017, we were only above $10,000 for what, a few weeks, a month? Something like that.
So if you were buying that whole bull run, if you were a HODLer 2015 – 2016, you’re coming in and executing some DCA strategy, even though back then it wasn’t a service. It hadn’t been made into a service like it is today, then your cost basis would be somewhere more around like $5,000 or $6,000, maybe even lower. And that’s the whole point.
Well, I’ve got a number for you, so the four-year average price is $7,450.
The past four years.
So a DCA since the last halving will get you almost triple, 2.5X. And that’s on a steady, stress-free savings plan.
Yeah. If you’re going to hold for three, four, five years, I don’t think a four-year period where you’re not up, executing on DCA.
I don’t think there’s been a four-month period, really. Because when the crashes happen, they’re violent. So a crash isn’t sustained, it usually just crashes hard for four days and then it’s back to the slow trickle up again.
Right, right, right.
So if you lump sum at the wrong time, you really are screwed. Yeah, I’ve watched the charts a lot, the dips are always violent and the rips are always nice, smooth, till it turns into a violent parabola followed by an equally violent crash.
So really, you’re probably only getting killed on your DCA a couple of days a year, like you’re forced to buy a rip. But most of the time, you’re in steady, calm waters, buying at a good value price every single day.
It’s fantastic. We have daily buys now on Bitcoin, we’ve had it for a couple of months. We launched with weekly and monthly. We’ve got a lot of people switching over to daily. I am on daily as well.
You’ve been on the Citizen Bitcoin Podcast in the past and we’ve talked about your journey and where you started and how things just completely dumped, and it was just a very tough slog back to even for you, so it really forged your belief in Bitcoin.
And now I see you’ve just got this smile on your face. When was that moment, when did it come to you that DCA was the way?
When I just was looking at past performance, looking at averages. When I got back in tune with the nature of Bitcoin actually being nature itself and mean reversion and balance and Zen and all of the good, religious things that we make fun of, but I apply directly to bitcoin.
As soon as I got into that mentality that, “That’s it. I’ve just got to buy every day no matter what, religious ritual.” Tithes for my salvation and the salvation of others, and that’s when I achieved Zen.
When I no longer had to get up every day in the morning and physically press ‘Buy’, when that was automated for me, I think that’s truly when I achieved true happiness. So that’s probably about a year and a half ago. I started doing my daily stacking with Amber of Aleks Svetski fame in around June last year.
And all you have to do really is visit dcabtc.com, punch in last June. Well, there’s another advantage to daily DCA; if anybody asks me how my portfolio is going, all I have to do is load up dcabtc.com, put in a couple of parameters, and I know my portfolio performance without even looking at what my stack is like.
Nice. That’s awesome. All right, so Gigi, Hass kind of breached the subject of Bitcoin religion here, the idea that there’s… We have some level of zealotry of commitment, of conviction, about what is going on here, about what Bitcoin represents; this idea that we have this knowledge now that money is the foundation of civilization, that our money is broken, and we found a solution.
So with that conviction, you must, as a moral obligation in some ways, carry that forward, carry that message forward and spread it as much as possible. George Gammon is going back and forth the last couple of days, he’s a YouTuber, an investment expert and YouTuber.
He’s been on the show in the past as well with Saifedean. The quote that really got me was, “Bullish on Bitcoin, bearish on Bitcoiners.” Because he was talking about how Bitcoiners are really just zealots. Talk about it man. I know you have a lot to say.
Yeah. Well, it’s quite something that this observation of some early Bitcoiners now kind of reached the mainstream, and it’s touted as if it was a bad thing. I don’t think it’s a bad thing.
The cyber hornets, as the Giga Chad calls them, it was I think the main point that convinced Michael Saylor to put almost 500 million U.S. dollars into Bitcoin, that there are “religious fanatics” behind it that will defend the network at all costs.
And we saw how important that is in a monetary network, that you have a social layer that is defending its core properties. And he mentioned that when he saw the fork wars play out and the maximalists won and the maximalists were right and continued to be right on certain, very crucial points, that this is not something that you can simply ignore.
This is something that will make you invest insane amounts of money into this network because you can’t be sure that there is just no, how should I say… It won’t be easy to undermine Bitcoin, and it won’t be easy to undermine the social layer of Bitcoin.
And as you rightly said as well, I think more and more Bitcoiners are realizing, as they say, you come for the money or you come for the pump and you stay for the revolution.
Seriously, the money and the whole monetary system and the financial system behind it is seriously broken and it’s a moral failing, it’s a moral failing of the system. And Bitcoin indeed fixes this.
And once you understand that, it is your moral duty to let others know about it and evangelize and talk about Bitcoin, write about Bitcoin, educate. And I think, this for me, I’ve said it before, probably the best decision as a Bitcoiner ever since I went into Bitcoin was setting up all the DCA, because it just lets you focus on all the other things.
I hate looking at charts, I hate looking at price, I hate trading. I’m a bad trader like 99.5% of all traders. It’s not a winning strategy, trading is not a winning strategy, it simply isn’t. If you think it is, you’re deluding yourself, it’s very unlikely that you’re actually outperforming anyone really. If you think you’re winning with trading, you’re probably deluding yourself.
And the thing is that there’s so much to learn and so much to build and so much still to be done in Bitcoin that I can only highly recommend to stop looking at charts, stop trading this thing, try to understand it. It doesn’t want to be traded, I think it just wants to be understood.
And if you can help Bitcoin a little bit by educating others and by building on it or maybe even contributing directly to it, then I think that’s the best thing you can do in this world right now, seriously.
It’s not an understatement, because the broken monetary system is literally the root of so many evils, it’s beyond belief. And having a fairer, more pure, more equal, more egalitarian system that replaces it, it boggles the mind how good this can be potentially for the world.
Let’s dive in and examine and lay out the case, the moral case for Bitcoin. What, (Hass, to you) is just one of the most tragic aspects, morally tragic aspects of fiat money?
Where do I start?
Pick one and we’ll go back and forth.
So all you really need to start with is The Cantillon Effect, and the ever-worsening divide, using Marxist terminology here, the haves and have-nots. The world is getting more and more expensive; housing, rent, medication, food.
And as technology improves and the world marches forward, you’d think these problems would improve, but they’re just getting worse and worse and they’re being further exacerbated by poor policy, central planning, money printing. Basically everything that is the antithesis of Bitcoin is being applied and implemented by governments.
Going back to George Gammon, I don’t know why he’s bearish on Bitcoiners. It’s Bitcoiners that are really pushing the ethical and moral angle of this technology, we have more so than just as a vehicle of getting rich.
There was a comment in the chat earlier aimed at Gigi, but I’ll pick it up. I think it was from Troy, whether money has religious connotations attached to it, and whether Bitcoin would have survived the fork wars if they didn’t treat it like a religion.
So I don’t think money itself inherently has religious connotations. I think it’s a vehicle and it’s just a vehicle. But I think Bitcoin itself, it’s 10% money and 90% philosophy and conviction and everything else. The monetary aspect is just sort of a representation of the underlying morals and philosophy of fairness, fair distribution, proof of work.
So yeah, I think it would have died in the fork wars if there wasn’t a religious conviction of the underlying ethics, morals, and principles that Bitcoin affords the believers.
Amen. Amen. Gigi, the moral failings of fiat money, when you think about that, what to you is one of the most egregious moral failings of fiat money and its effect on society?
Well, it’s very simple. You just have to realize that providing goods and services and creating more money are two very different things. You might think that they are somewhat equal because it’s also work to print money or something, but it really isn’t.
Expanding the money supply, the privilege of printing money, it’s just immoral at its core, because you’re enriching yourself and your friends at the cost of everyone else in society. And not only that, it’s also completely distorting the price signal, which is kind of a language of society to agree what is worth what and also who owes what to who.
So just that alone I think, removing that alone, removing the possibility to mess with the money supply completely, once and for all, just that alone would fix so many problems in society. It’s so much fairer. It’s like a law of nature. Hass likes to say Bitcoin is nature in that regard.
It’s not something that is in our control anymore. And I think, again, the more people realize that and wake up to that fact, the more religious sellers we will have, because that is something worth preserving, that is something worth fighting for, that is something that people should and can get behind, because it’s so insanely important.
But that’s not all of it. Bitcoin is an open system, it’s a permissionless system, everyone can use it, everyone can use it to save, everyone can use it to transact, everyone can build on it. If you want to create a bank in cyberspace, you can, and nobody can stop you.
It’s much more competitive, it’s much more open, it’s much more friendly for competition and just in general for usage. There are so many people that don’t have any access to meaningful savings technology or to financial tools. And all of that is currently being built out on Bitcoin, and this is just beautiful to see. And I think that it’s a worthy cause.
Those two things alone are worthy enough for me to dedicate my life for it. Don’t mess with the money supply and create an open platform that anyone can use. And the fiat is, of course, the fiat world, is the total complete opposite of that; a couple of people have complete control over the monetary supply, as we see right now, and it’s also a closed system.
The hoops you have to jump through until you could open a bank or create a central bank or anything like that, it’s insane. Even opening a bank account or getting a credit card or anything like that, it’s insane.
And also, in today’s day and age with the deplatforming that’s going on, I don’t want to live in that world. I don’t want to see YouTubers or whoever, it doesn’t matter… If you’re a sex worker or selling weed online or whatever, if you’re getting deplatformed from your financial services, it’s atrocious.
And I think Bitcoin is here to fix all that. And it’s worthy to sacrifice all your free time at least for it.
Yeah. And I love the idea that Robert Breedlove has popularized that fiat money is time theft. If money represents our time, the time that we’ve spent being productive, contributing to the free market, to society, our solutions for other people; the free market seeks to, the truly free market, which requires free money, market-chosen money, is a good thing because it incentivizes us to…
Basically it turns our selfishness or self-interest and channels it into selfless outcomes, because it incentivizes us to find solutions, efficient solutions, for other people’s problems.
And if fiat money then is basically the representation, money in general is the representation of our time and our work and our effort to contribute to society in that way, then we have essentially manipulated money and manipulated time. Our time is being manipulated and being debased and being decreased in value any time money is printed.
And that money goes to these corporations first, it goes to big banks first to loan out at higher interest rates, and on down the line, all the way to credit cards at 17 – 20% interest, payday loans at even higher percent interest rates. And so there’s this pyramid scheme of money lent out at higher and higher interest rates as you go all the way down, and it starts with enriching the top.
So if you are basically rewarding people’s time at the top of that pyramid kind of one-to-one, because they’re getting that money first, then the money as it becomes more devalued is affecting people’s time as you go further and further down the stack, in a more and more negative way.
And if we then create a sound-money-based free market, we are all on fair ground, on equal footing. And the products of our time then is able to be stored and not debased. Then we get to do things that we’re interested in, that inspire us. And we may have to work for 10 or 15 years on something we may not prefer to work on, but we can build wealth and earn time, free time, for us to focus on things that we’re interested in, that we’re passionate about.
I think that’s the moral obligation, right? We need to fight to give people’s time back. And the idea that I’m convinced that a sound-money-based free market on an actually free, uncensorable, unmanipulatable market-chosen money will lead us into a Renaissance for that reason, purely because we’re giving people’s time back to them.
Yeah, I agree. Sorry Hass.
No, no, go on.
I think we see this play out already in real-time. As you know, Brady and also John Vallis talked about this a lot with a lot of Bitcoiners, we should see it in the early adopters now that Bitcoin definitely changes your behavior, it lowers your time preference.
You can be sure that you still have your sats. You might not know exactly what the buying power is of the sats, but historically it’s always climbed higher. So you just can be sure that it will be there still and it will be accessible.
And as we have seen in the great financial crisis for example, if you’re in Greece, this is just not a given that the money you have in your bank account is yours, because it actually isn’t yours, and it changes… Bitcoin is something that you can truly own, it’s the only thing that you can truly own.
This fact alone changes people’s perspective and changes people’s lives. And I wouldn’t be surprised if we see, if we truly are at the dawn of the Bitcoin Renaissance as you like to say. Because we see it already, we have hundreds, if not thousands of people, some of them very much outspoken about those kind of positive changes that adopting a personal Bitcoin standard brought with them. And I think it can definitely spread further and spread through society.
Nothing like a number go up to draw them in. I’m starting to get calls about, “Oh, do you reckon Bitcoin’s going to go good? Do you reckon Bitcoin’s going to go good?” And trying to convince newbies to just start a DCA instead of lump-sum buying.
It’s not entering their head space, so I’m having to do a lot of work to convince people to come aboard. Because I don’t like hearing the stories of somebody getting into Bitcoin, they’ve bought a lump sum, they’ve stored it and they’ve gone away.
I like to hear stories of people adopting Bitcoin as their money. And to that end, that’s it, you just start a daily, weekly, or monthly commitment. So I get paid weekly, right, you can do a weekly DCA. If you get paid fortnightly, you do a fortnightly one.
I’ve run the numbers, and there is no statistically meaningful difference between stacking daily and stacking weekly over the past three years, it’s a negligible difference. But there’s a big difference between that and fortnightly and monthly, you tend to miss too many days of action.
So if you’re stacking monthly, you’re only stacking 12 days of the year. So chances are you’re going to miss a lot of the action. But weekly, you’re basically covering the same as daily. So if you feel like you’re being excessive stacking daily and your tax reporting is blowing out because you’ve got 365 orders per year, move that down to 50 orders per year.
But as Cory says, all you need is that intransigent minority of 10 million people stacking $10 a day, that’s it. And that’s sustained daily buy pressure of 100 million bucks a day. We’ll just make Bitcoin find a floor at 70, 80, 90, $100,000. And that’s not counting the one-and-done institutional allocations.
So I fear greatly that… Guggenheim said they want to buy 500 million worth of bitcoin. I can guarantee them, if they bought 500 million worth of bitcoin in one day, they’ll shoot the price up and then it’ll crash within a couple of days, they’ll get scared and maybe dump it.
On Stacy’s question, I did use to stack hourly, but when I printed out, what’s it called, my exchange statement at the end of the year to give to the accountant, it was 40 pages long, I had 7,000 orders. So my accountant’s like, “Why don’t you just go back to daily?”
Yeah. And you said daily and weekly isn’t a big difference, I assume there’s not a big difference between hourly and daily or weekly for that matter.
But look, I do see potential in a streaming service for stacking sats, maybe over Lighting or something. Stack 100 sats per second or something like that, and just get yourself a nice drip straight into the veins, sats straight into the veins.
If it doesn’t matter for your cost basis, it’s I guess just for that feeling that every second that goes by you’re stacking a little bit more. I guess that would have-
Yeah. Just because it would be fun. And I guess, I don’t know, we probably all get some dopamine hits at this point whenever we stack.
And just to point out that this is already working. If you look at Podcasting 2.0 for example, the Podcasting 2.0 Index, the default setting is that I think one percent of every Satoshi streamed goes to them.
And The Podfather himself, he mentioned that he is getting sats every second, every minute pretty much. And he gets streaming sats, it’s not too much now, it’s like three sats or so. But still, three sats a second, it’s not nothing. I think it’s the future of earning, that’s what I believe.
Interesting. That’s fascinating. Yeah.
Yeah, three sats a second is still not bad, that’s your $10 a day.
Yeah, probably. I might have the numbers wrong.
Yeah. It’s about 100,000 sats I take.
I don’t remember if it was per second or minute or something, but he said sats are coming 24⁄7, all the time. And since it’s a streaming sats platform where you stream sats when you’re listening to podcasts, it gets automatically split up to the podcast producers and also to the Podcasting 2.0 Index if you so choose.
So streaming sats are already here. It’s always the same in Bitcoin, it’s already here, it’s already existing, it’s just not evenly distributed yet.
Yeah. Yeah. This Podcast 2.0 thing is really interesting. I haven’t had time to dig into it yet, and I need to get both Swan Signal set up and Citizen Bitcoin set up.
But from what I gather and what I see from tweets and checking out Adam Curry’s couple of pods with Guy and with Marty, it sounds amazing. The idea is they’ve partnered with a Lightning chat app called Sphinx Chat, sphinx.chat, and turned it into a podcast player.
You can create a tribe for your podcast, a community for your podcast on the app, chat and build that community. But also, whenever somebody listens to your podcast through the app, they’re literally streaming sats to you as they listen.
So the further they get into the content, the more sats you earn for that episode. Fascinating, fascinating stuff. Have you seen this, Hass?
Not yet, but I think it’s something that requires my patronage quite soon. I really do like that model. Obviously we talked about fiat money, but there’s also sort of a… The fiat mindset has invaded basically big business, and especially Big Tech.
And it’ll be good to see justice being delivered to Big Tech through platforms like Podcast 2.0. Because the old systems, they’re just simply not working anymore, especially in terms of censorship and general fiat mindset.
So to have a model that exists in the free world to help us get our message out uncensored and monetized, that would be great. So yeah, Sphinx Chat, I’ll definitely have to start looking into that a little more. And hopefully the Bitcoin podcasters migrate that way.
Yeah. It’s definitely happening. There’s quite a few that have already adopted it and are leading the way. It’s really fascinating, I think it’s one of the, if not the most interesting application of Lightning that I’ve seen yet.
And the idea that it can inspire a content production world, not just audio but all forms of content without needing to find sponsorships, just directly from your consumers, the consumers of your content, the fans of your content, I think is really bullish for the future of content creation, just direct to the producer from the consumer.
Yeah, absolutely. And I think, as you said, this is just the beginning. This is a prototype, Lightning is still very young, it still has a couple of problems to work out, especially in terms of how to figure out your involved liquidity.
And all of this is coming. I’m so insanely bullish on all these developments. And also just keep in mind, this is one Layer 2 solution. Even if Lightning fails completely, Bitcoin is perfectly fine, it’s so beautiful.
And all the developments that have been coming out recently, also Lightning tools for example or automated channel balancing, stuff like that. I think it’s obvious that all of this will improve and it will just work like your internet router for example. You just plug in your Raspberry Pi and you just load it up with some Bitcoin and you check some boxes.
And if you want to offer liquidity for example, you can even earn some sats with that. And if you want to start a Sphinx Chat node or a relay, you just spin that up and you let your sats work for you, and that’s where you went with streaming sats and everything.
I think it’s going to be great. And it’s so beautiful that all this is being developed so quickly and out in the open. I’m so insanely impressed, something like Sphinx Chat and Podcasting 2.0, I wouldn’t have guessed that we would have that already in 2020.
I would have thought that this will just take another one or two years more. And we already have it. It’s still small and it’s still beta version, so to speak, but they are iterating it so insanely quickly it’s beyond belief.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this takes off in a huge way in the next one or two years. Because if content creators figure that out, if YouTubers figure that out, if cam girls figure that out, if gamers figure that out, all of that is good for Bitcoin. It’s obvious to me that all of this will be happening.
Yep. And they make it easy. Sorry, go ahead Hass.
The thing is, I don’t think they’ll figure it out. I think their hand will just be forced.
A legacy system will ban them from doing something and then they’re just going to have to figure out how to get around the ban, and we’ll be waiting for them with open arms.
It’s true. It’s true. And just a note, because Lightning usability, if you’re setting up a node or having a Raspberry Pi, is for tinkerers and Bitcoin enthusiasts etc. There’s only 11,000 reachable nodes on the network, right?
And how many Lightning nodes? I’m not sure, but it’s a relatively small amount. But Sphinx makes it really easy because you can just pay a few dollars a month and they’ll host a Lightning node for you, just to get started. And that’s, I think, a huge service and a massive improvement over the experience, opening up lightning to normies.
Yeah, absolutely. It’s just still early days. Remember, something like a VCR was just for tinkerers in the early days. The internet was definitely just for tinkerers in the early days. Trying to connect to a dial-up modem or just trying to get any network going, it was impossible.
If you didn’t invest all your free time into that, you had no chance. It was definitely only for tinkerers. And just look what we have now here. Most people don’t even have PCs or laptops anymore, you just have your smartphone. And if it doesn’t have internet, it basically doesn’t work, so it just works out of the box.
And I’m super bullish on all of these developments in the Bitcoin world as well. We already see a trend in that direction that we have plug-and-play nodes and also nodes on phones for example. I think all of that will come. I think more slow, we’ll continue for quite some time.
We still have kind of exponential progress, and the requirements for running a Bitcoin node are linear, so it’s just a matter of time until you can spin up a node on your phone. That definitely already works.
I’d say few months.
Yeah, there you go.
And I’ll tell you why, because the other day, I think it was Jonas Schnelli, he got a new M1 Apple and he synced the blockchain in five hours. You can put M1s in phones.
Yeah, there you go.
So that’s it, we’re done basically. But I don’t think there’s any full node being written for iPhones yet, but the fact is that ARM processors are now capable of syncing the blockchain in five hours.
So next year I imagine it’ll hit one of the high-end flagship phones, and you could probably run a full node, maybe pruned, on your mobile device. I think we are finally there. Or at least with Apple Silicon.
I don’t own any Apple products except for these, so I can’t take advantage of that. But the proof is there because Apple will be using the M1 chip on both their laptop hardware and their phone hardware. And I imagine other manufacturers, to compete with Apple, will have to come up with something fairly similar, and then we’re basically there.
1TB drives will soon enough be standard in phones. And then you’ve got a fully functional fast node on your phone.
Yep. I see it coming. Gigi, you wrote a piece on the Swan blog a month or two ago, about Bitcoin’s user experience. And you started getting into it there, comparing it to the early internet user experience. Do you want to briefly summarize that and maybe talk about where you think we are in terms of internet user experience if you apply the analog, where we are, at what point of the Internet’s user experience development do you think Bitcoin is?
Yeah. I still think we are in early to mid ’90s. The reason I’m saying that is because we are still at the nuts and bolts level of the Bitcoin base layer. You have to know what an address is, you have to know what an XPub is, you have to care about signatures, you have to care about what kind of address type you use, you have to care about what your wallet is doing exactly, you have to know your derivation paths and stuff like that.
And it’s very similar to knowing… If you know what I’m talking about, when you built a computer you had to know your IRQ numbers for example. If you ever tried to set up an IPX/SPX network or a token ring network or something like that, the stuff you had to do, it boggles the mind.
And I think we’re still in that era. And all of that will be abstracted that way. And we already see that on the second layer on Lightning. Lightning has abstracted so many things away. If you install a powerful Lightning wallet on your phone, then all of that is taken care of, you don’t even see Bitcoin addresses anymore and you don’t have to know about XPubs.
I think end users won’t have to know about all that. I think also to loop back to the node issue, I think just setting up a node, I think it will be really, really easy. Because I think more and more people realize that walled gardens, no matter how beautiful they are, they are really dangerous and they are kind of destroying the idea of the free and open internet.
And I think there will be a counter movement to Facebook and Google, and it has already started and it is already happening. And what is essential in this counter movement is a move one step back, where everyone was building his own home page and hosting his own home page and just building tools that make self-hosting easier.
And I think this will include something that we already see, like my node for example, you have an assistant at home, a small machine with a terabyte hard drive in it or more, doesn’t matter, it will run your full node, it is something you can connect to. Maybe it will host your images, maybe it will host your data.
I think all of this will be coming. I think it’s inevitable that people will see this new kind of paradigm as the better paradigm as compared to the walled gardens we’re currently having. And I think the current situation in the information space is just accelerating this.
The whole political polarization we have because of these advertisement-driven hellholes, I think it won’t go away. They won’t figure out the algorithm that makes it right. We will have to do something else and we will have to build back better with Bitcoin, right?
John Fischer in the chat is asking about nodes, he says… By the way, John remembers IRQ device codes in Windows 95 and trying to run that stuff. I remember back in the DOS days when I was a kid and trying to work with 640K of RAM and get games to run, having to create boot disks, individual boot disks for individual games. So yeah, we’ve come a long way for sure.
John Fischer says, “I’m interested in running a full node but I’m afraid that I will be a target of government-sponsored hackers or something scary like that. I have to look more into it and learn more about it.” Do you have anything to say to John?
I don’t think he should be worried about that. Caveat here, it depends on your jurisdiction and what you’re doing. For example, in some countries it’s actually illegal to run power nodes. So you kind of have to do some research.
I’m guessing you’re from a somewhat sane country. And as far as I know, running a Bitcoin full node is not illegal anywhere yet, but I’m not a lawyer, please correct me if I’m wrong.
Anyway, in essence, if you’re getting one of the more modern plug and play solutions, they all default to Tor anyway, so nobody will know whether you’re running a full node anyway. So you have really nothing to be afraid of.
You of course can be very paranoid and think that Tor is compromised. Personally, I don’t think it is. But still, just check it out. Just try it out. You don’t have to dive very deep into it, just get familiar. You don’t have to even use it heavily. Just set it up, see how everything goes, you can also set it up in Testnet, and just play around with it.
I think it’s a very, very good tool to just learn more about the nuts and bolts of Bitcoin. And I encourage everyone to do that because it’s just a fascinating piece of technology how everything fits together and how everything works.
Hass, do you have any thoughts on Bitcoin’s user experience from your perspective having been around for quite a while now, how it’s evolved and maybe an experience running a node?
Yeah. It’s improved dramatically. So I was a node noob, an absolute noob. So my first ever node experience was the Casa Node 1 with the loopy cable.
Which was a Pi 3 with Casa’s own sort of interface. Then Casa came out with the Node 2, and I repurposed that into a myNode. So now I’m on myNode, the UX has improved so dramatically that I’ve adopted Specter for my three or five multisig solution.
Before that, if you wanted good, usable three or five, you were paying 1,500 U.S. a year to Casa. Now I can do that in a completely self-sovereign private way on Specter. Specter is getting better every single day. If you haven’t checked it out, I’d strongly recommend checking it out.
Check out Ministry of Nodes’ guide to setting up myNode. They also have a guide to just setting up a straight-up Ubuntu box so that if you don’t want to pay 150 bucks or whatever it is, 100 bucks for myNode, you can build it yourself in Linux. So great resources.
There’s night and day improvements seemingly every year. I’m finally getting quite happy with whether the UX is for people that just want to buy DCA and hold on their own nodes. We are almost there, we are almost ready for mass-market usability.
It’s exciting. We’re getting there. And it’s certainly on the onboarding front, the on-ramp front, the user experience has gotten far better; Cash App, Swan. We just launched a new onboarding flow that are our team, Yan Pritzker and Jorn Roder, worked really hard to put together, and Gigi was a part of that as well.
And it’s fantastic. It’s extremely simple. Core dev James O’Beirne tried it out and said on Twitter that the onboarding experience was fantastic, so that was really great to hear. And it’s amazing how quickly and easily you can go through the process of setting up an account and start stacking and create your plan.
So it’s literally five minutes and super easy for anybody to do. You can do it straight from your phone. So yeah, check it out, SwanBitcoin.com if you haven’t set it up yet and check out the flow, the onboarding flow, it’s something special, really excited about it.
So Gigi, you are working on a new book. Of course, you wrote 21 Lessons: What I’ve Learned from Falling Down the Bitcoin Rabbit Hole a couple years ago now, if I’m correct. I remember talking to you about it soon after you had published it online.
Yeah. I wrote it online first, and the book actually came out last Christmas, so it’s not even one year old in book form, but it exists as a block form for now one and a half years or something like that, maybe a bit longer.
And yeah, I’m working on a second book. I’ve said in the past, I think I have another book in me. And it’s coming out but it’s coming out a little bit slower than I’d like it to. But I blame it on being a father, I don’t have as much time anymore as I used to.
But it’s all right, it’s definitely worth it. To everyone who is listening to this, just get kids, it’s amazing. I think the book will be my attempt to look at Bitcoin holistically from 21 different angles so to speak.
I really like the saying, which is also kind of the opening and the motivation to write the book, that Bitcoin is different things to different people. And it’s definitely worth to look at it that way.
I often use the example, if you’re a trader, then Bitcoin is for trading. If you’re a macro guy, then Bitcoin is like a macro asset. If you are a developer then the most interesting thing right now is probably Lightning and streaming sats and all the stuff we talked about. If you’re into free speech, then you’re probably listening to Alex Gladstein and you see Bitcoin as free speech money and uncensorable payments and stuff like that.
And there are just so many angles to explore. And the one I personally like best, probably because I just finished the first draft of the chapter, is that Bitcoin is time. But not only in Bitcoin is stored time, since money is time and money is more time, but Bitcoin is just a giant clock that solves a very specific timestamping problem.
And the Bitcoin network literally is time. There is block time and there is nothing else on the Bitcoin network. The human time doesn’t really matter except for the difficulty adjustment, it’s like the very thin thread that keeps block time anchored to the real world so to speak.
But Bitcoin actually, in a very neat way, and I angered some physicists on Twitter with that, but I still stick to it; Bitcoin flattens, in some sense, the space-time continuum in its hash horizon. Because either you are on a certain time or you aren’t. Only the block time, only the block height counts. And it ticks instantly so to speak, for you, from your perspective.
And this is how Bitcoin solves the unsolvable synchronization problem. Because for light to travel around the world, you always have… Even if the rulers and the connections and everything is perfect, you have 50 milliseconds lag. So you can’t really coordinate, in the sense, what happened before and what happened after. Because in terms of general relativity, you can’t really say what happened before or after. There is no synchronous time.
And this is what Bitcoin solves. There are fancy ways to talk about it in terms of the Byzantine General’s problem and the communications channel isn’t secure and so on and so forth. But still, even if you disregard that and you trust all the communications, you can solve the synchronization problem.
I think it’s fascinating to just explore all these little facets of Bitcoin that most people don’t really think about, especially if the most interesting thing to them is the price.
Whoa. Blown my mind there Gigi. I love it. I’m excited to read that chapter in particular. If you are interested in getting an inside look into Gigi’s process, you can support him on Patreon and get into his Telegram group, releasing drafts of chapters and taking inputs, and it’s pretty cool to be part of the process.
So I would definitely encourage that. I am a supporter. I have not been as involved as I would like to because also, dad and Swan stuff happening. But I do lurk and follow along and it’s fun to be kind of behind the scenes. So I assume you can find that link at 21 Lessons. Oh, there you go. Brekkie’s got it on the screen.
Brekkie got us covered. I think every Bitcoiner has the same problem, there are only 144 blocks in a day and you can’t double-spend them. You have to use your block time wisely, so you can’t do everything at once.
I like that. I like that. Awesome. All right gents, we’re coming up to the end of our time together here today. Hass, do you have any closing thoughts for the squad, for the crew watching here today?
Yeah, yeah. So for the Americans watching, you know where to go, and that place is Swan. For my international crew, hop on over to my profile on Twitter, check out my pinned tweet, and in there I’ve got some auto DCA Bitcoin-only options for you wherever you may be.
Except Latin America unfortunately. We need to get the Latin Americans on this train, because I think they can really use it. I’ve got an African provider on my list, Bitnob, based in Nigeria, and they have support for quite a few African countries, not just for Nigerian naira purchases.
So be sure to check it out. Be sure to stack strong, stack long, and don’t forget that a Bitcoin buy is tantamount to an act of charity. So not only are you helping yourself with your DCA, you are helping the world.
Absolutely. Absolutely. A thought that I had really quickly; Nigeria is one of the leading countries in terms of Bitcoin adoption in the world, so shout-out to Nigeria, lots of amazing stuff happening there. Gigi, closing thoughts, words of wisdom, inspiration?
Yeah. I always offer the same words of wisdom; set up auto DCA no matter where you are. The psychological and financial benefits cannot be overstated. If you’re not auto-stacking, what are you even doing? And use your time wisely. Learn about Bitcoin, I think it’s well worth it.
And yeah, I also think that auto DCA is the best chance of a somewhat smooth and peaceful transition, and just be useful, be productive, be a benefit to your society. Start a Bitcoin meetup, join your local Bitcoin meetup, support your local Bitcoin community. If there is none, try to create one.
Shout-out to the German-speaking community, we have some great people around the einundzwanzig crew, which is German for 21. And yeah, just try to be useful, stack what you can. And again, this is a game of accumulation, don’t lose it by trading or doing other stupid things.
Thanks guys. Always fun to hang out with you. Two of my favorite Bitcoiners, two people who I’ve come to call friends over the past couple of years, and I really appreciate hanging out with you guys and your time today.
Before we close out, (1) we’re going to have a really bullish video that Brekkie cut, and we’re going to run that here in a second. Just to remind you though, SwanBitcoin.com/NewYork if you want to get 10 bucks in free Bitcoin, in honor of us opening in New York just this past month, which means we’re in all 50 states and U.S. territories now, which is super exciting.
We are also launching ‘Buy now’ soon as I mentioned at the top. You can help us test that out, sign up for the beta at SwanBitcoin.com/buynow. I think that’s it for the shills at the bottom here. Brekkie, roll tape. Let’s finish on some bullish notes here.
Their spirits were sunken and low, their bags weighed more than a ton, there was neither sign nor show, when the bull began his run. The shills were shilling wall-to-wall, the gig was up, they’d had their fun. And every short got a margin call, when the bull began his run.
The candles green came fast and tall. Each wick was bold, quick to stun. His eyes burned red, and his horns did maul, when the bull began his run. Now fortune smiles upon the neet. His bags of gold gleam in the sun, doubters dream of his balance sheet, and every bear is left with none, since the bull began his run.
Oh, yes. Feeling that right here, goosebumps. I meant to say that this is a production of Bitstein not Brekkie. So credit where credit is due, Bitstein puts together these amazing, incredibly bullish, hits all the feels, long-form kind of video memes.
Cory, the man is here. The guy that started Swan Bitcoin and pulled this team together. How’s it going man?
Good, good. I wasn’t expecting to actually be on the show. I was just popping in to say hi to Friar. You guys finished up, but glad to join for a couple minutes.
All right. Let’s go Bitcoin, feeling bullish. Thanks for joining us today. Join us for Swan Lounge on Friday. Next week, Swan Signal Live, we’ll be with Preston Pysh and it gets to be determined. That’ll be a lot of fun. Always great to talk to Preston, gets everybody fired up. So we’ll see you Friday for Swan Lounge and next Tuesday for the next edition of Swan Signal Live. Take care everyone.
Episode 8 –Andy Edstrom and Ansel Linder
Episode 9 –Rockstar Developer and Jeremy Rubin
Episode 10 – Bitcoin TINA and CK Snarks
Episode 11– Gigi and Knut Svanholm
Episode 12 –Adam Back and Preston Pysh
Episode 13 –Alex Gladstein and Matt Odell
Episode 14 –Robert Breedlove and Tuur Demeester
Episode 15 –Isaiah Jackson and Max Keiser
Episode 16 –Gigi and Udi Wertheimer
Episode 17 –Aleks Svetski and Jimmy Song
Episode 18 –Stephan Livera and Marty Bent
Episode 19 –Mark Moss and Ben Prentice
Episode 20 –Samson Mow and Parker Lewis
Episode 21–Lyn Alden and Jeff Booth
Episode 22– Robert Breedlove and Cory Klippsten
Episode 23 — Saifedean Ammous and George Gammon
Episode 24 –Jameson Lopp and Eric Martindale
Episode 25 –Preston Pysh and Andy Edstrom
Episode 26 –Lyn Alden and Nic Carter
Episode 27 — Erik Townsend and Yan Pritzker
Episode 28 — Max Keiser and Tone Vays
Episode 29 –Preston Pysh and Andy Edstrom
Episode 30–Raoul Pal and Vijay Boyapati
Episode 31–Dan Tapiero and Dan Matuszewski
Episode 32–Robert Breedlove and Parker Lewis
Episode 33– Danielle DiMartino Booth and Michael Saylor
Episode 34– Jeff Deist and Stephan Livera
Episode 35–Will Reeves and Yan Pritzker
Episode 36–Alex Gladstein and Marty Bent
Episode 37–Brandon Quittem and Robert Breedlove
Episode 38–Jake Chervinsky and Rafael Yakobi
Episode 39–Alex Adelman and Desiree Dickerson
Episode 40–Andy Edstrom and Lyn Alden
This blog offers thoughts and opinions on Bitcoin from the Swan Bitcoin team and friends. Swan Bitcoin is the easiest way to buy Bitcoin using your bank account automatically every week or month, starting with as little as $10. Sign up or learn more here.